ES Weekly: Five Straight Down. Watching for the Turn.
Mid-week plan called 6,680 as the hurdle. It rejected three times before the bottom dropped. VIX crossed 30. Oil touched $100. Our sentiment score hit its worst reading yet. 3 scenarios below.
ES Weekly Plan | Mar 30 - Apr 3, 2026
ES at 6,398. Down 245 from Wednesday’s close. Down 9.6% from the January high. Five consecutive losing weeks, the longest streak since 2022.
The mid-week plan had it right on resistance: 6,680 rejected three times. It had it wrong on timing. The breakdown didn’t wait for the Friday deadline. Thursday’s 1.74% S&P drop was the worst single session since the war began on February 28. Friday added another 1.67%. Two days erased the entire bounce from the prior week’s 6,483 low and then some.
The Lie: -4. We’ve been defensive since the selloff began. That hasn’t changed. What’s changed is that at -4, the conditions for the best entries start forming. The plan this week is how to stay patient and what to watch for.
Scorecard, eight levels, the April 6 convergence, three scenarios, and what would flip The Lie below.
