The floor gets tested.
Iran hit Kuwait. Broadcom's AI guidance missed the bar. ES reversed 89 points from Tuesday's high and is testing 7,540 support after hours. The put spread is on and working.
Last week’s mid-week: “The grind is the setup. The autopilot has a switch-off date.” Sunday: “So why is The Lie at -2?” We published the put spread, mapped seven levels, and wrote the exact kill conditions: “AVGO miss Wednesday” for semis. “CRWD miss Wednesday” for cyber.
Both happened. Same day. Plus Iran.
Tuesday hit 7,624, a new all-time high. Then Wednesday, Iran launched missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. One dead, sixty wounded. Oil spiked past $95. ES reversed 89 points from Tuesday’s high to 7,535 after hours. We’re sitting right on the 7,540 support we called on Sunday.
The Lie was -2 CAUTIOUS going into the week. The process is tracking.
Below the fold: the level scorecard, updated game plan, what the earnings mean for themes, and why defense mode is still the right call.
