Who buys week ten.

Nine green weeks. Record earnings. Record margins. The mechanical bid expires in 11 days.

Last week we published eight levels. Three cleared in our direction. We rolled the protection forward and carry it into this week. The long entry never triggered. The 30% scenario played out. ES printed a new all-time high.

That’s nine consecutive green weeks, the longest weekly winning streak since 2023. This week decides whether it’s ten or done. S&P 500 Q1 earnings grew 28.6%, the highest since Q4 2021. Net profit margins hit 14.8%, an all-time record. The beat rate was 85%, the best since Q2 2021. Analysts are raising Q2 estimates instead of cutting them, the first time that’s happened since Q3 2021.

So why is The Lie at -2?

The Lie: -2 CAUTIOUS. The Lie is our composite score for whether the surface index trend is being confirmed by breadth, positioning, volatility, and sector rotation. Was +1 last Sunday. Three points in one week, the biggest single-week drop since the April bottom. Everything looks perfect on the surface. We’ve seen this before.

The earnings are real. The participation is not broad enough to ignore. What changed and why it matters is below the fold.

The scorecard, this week’s levels, and two high-conviction ideas are below the fold.